SCC Preview: Busch a good bet at DoverBy Mark Garrow Of the 22 tracks that comprise NASCAR's Sprint Cup circuit, only two -- Bristol and Dover -- have concrete surfaces. The fast, high-banked ovals opted for concrete several years ago after repeated efforts to keep the asphalt from tearing up failed. Track officials at both Bristol and Dover had found a quick fix because their surfaces were no longer coming apart and creating crashes and controversy. Drivers discovered concrete wasn't as temperamental as asphalt when it came to changing temperatures and weather conditions. Teams found the concrete tracks possessed more consistency, thus requiring crews to spend less time chasing a chassis setup during a race. Consistency also can be found among the drivers. Those who perform well on Bristol's concrete surface do well at Dover, too. In the past five races at the two tracks, three drivers -- Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon -- have each come away with four top-10s. Burton won the March 2008 Bristol race. Kenseth has possessed a special touch for the tough Dover track nicknamed the "Monster Mile" since the start of his career. His Sprint Cup debut came in September 1998 at Dover when he substituted for Bill Elliott so the Georgia driver could attend his father's funeral. Kenseth qualified 16th and finished sixth. Since then, Kenseth has won one race at Dover and two at Bristol. Overall, 24 drivers have posted at least one top-10 in the past five races at the two tracks. Only seven, however, have obtained three top-10s in the past five events, and three of them have been victorious. Greg Biffle won the Dover race in September, while Carl Edwards took the Bristol event in August. Kyle Busch is the defending champion of the June Dover race (though this year's race is in May). He also won at Bristol in March. The other drivers with three top-10s in the past five concrete races are Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin. Edwards' lone concrete win is a little misleading, because he has consistently been more of a contender than one might realize. Last year at Dover, he finished second in June and third in September. At first glance, one might think that due to the physical abuse a driver's body receives at Dover and Bristol it would be the younger competitors who would be more consistent at those tracks. But that's not the case, as experience and stamina are critical. Of the three drivers who have produced top-10s in four of the past five concrete races, none of them are under age 35. In fact, their average age is 38. Burton is 41, while Kenseth and Gordon are each 37. In the victory department, it's split: Two are older than age 35, and two are younger than age 30. That puts the average age at 33. Burton is the oldest and Busch the youngest at age 24. Edwards is 29 and Biffle 39. So if you want to get an inkling of who will perform well in Sunday's Autism Speaks 400 at Dover International Speedway, don't look at the drivers' performances on the 1-mile tracks. Look at the concrete tracks, and then consider physical fitness and experience. Big bucks (SCC value 21.0 and up) This week might be a good time to drop down and perhaps go with a combo of Kyle Busch (22.0) and Greg Biffle (21.2). Whether it's the past two races or the past 10 on the "Monster Mile," Biffle has scored more points there than any other driver. That will save you some cap space and allow for a little more strength in the middle tier or higher-valued "floor" pick. The other guy I really like in this group is Ryan Newman (21.9). There was a time at Dover he was nearly unbeatable because he had the kind of equipment he's driving these days. This is also a good track for Matt Kenseth (21.3). If you already have Jeff Gordon (22.9) he's not an automatic drop and you might want to think about keeping him. Jimmie Johnson (22.3) is going to warrant at least a little bit of consideration given his three Dover wins and nine top-10s in 14 starts. Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 21.0) Mark Martin (20.9) leaps off the page in this group. He's a four-time Dover winner, and in his past 10 starts there he has six top-5s and eight top-10 -- not to mention the way he's been running lately. Carl Edwards (20.9) is the same value. He has won a race, ran runner-up and placed third twice in his past four Dover starts. Another guy I like in this group is down near the bottom and that's Martin Truex Jr. (18.4). He's won at Dover and considers it his favorite track. Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 18.0) There's no place else to start here but with Joey Logano (16.3). It appears the light has been turned on in the 19-year-old's upstairs porch, if you get what I mean. He's finished ninth in three of the past four races and I'm a believer. After that it gets a little stickier to figure out. Jamie McMurray (17.2) and David Ragan (15.7) could be worth a thought or two. The same could be said for Sam Hornish Jr. (15.1). Brad Keselowski (17.5) is driving a fifth Chevy for Rick Hendrick, so that puts Keselowski in the mix. Debit not credit Up on top, I'm not sure why you go with a Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon when Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle and Ryan Newman all have potential to run stronger at a cheaper price. Those three should also be strong at Pocono. Jeff Burton also doesn't make my top-tier; Denny Hamlin doesn't either; and perhaps Kurt Busch doesn't. In the middle group, I'm not excited about David Reutimann, Juan Pablo Montoya, Clint Bowyer or Brian Vickers. Kasey Kahne worries me because he hasn't finished that well at Dover lately and this is the first week he's using a new Dodge engine for the Richard Petty Motorsports entry. Guru Garrow's gang Last week, I scored 750 with Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Brian Vickers and Joey Logano. I don't see any big changes this week. I'll swap out Vickers for Martin Truex Jr. and his Earnhardt Ganassi Racing team. The only other change I'm contemplating is dropping Ryan Newman for Greg Biffle, who has been money at Dover the past five years; however, I'm nagged by the thought that because Newman is back in one of the best cars on the track, he'll return to his early Dover dominance. Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com. |
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